Odessa?

3 Responses to Odessa?

1. Jeffrey Lebowski says:

   May 1, 2024 at 12:26 pm

   I’m not a expert on intra Ukrainian affairs, or even a greater Russian expert.

   However, I think the last Economist article on the Ukrainian draft evasion problem, set in Odessa, was telling. Notably, it described the city of Odessa as one that “wore its Ukrainian identity lightly” or words to that effect.

   I will say as an analyst of military operations, its nearly impossible to do enough analysis, as issues of what the Russians really want are often hidden behind poor translation, to layers of meaning and allusions, literary and historical that often are lost but all but the most die hard and competent students of that culture.

   That said, I’ve been interested in what the ground truth is of One Ukraine, Slava Ukraini narrative the Ukrainians have been masterfully delivering to western audiences.

   For example, if you gave the average 25 year old male in Odessa a Russian or Ukrainian passport and told him “pick one” which would he choose? If the Ukrainian one came with EU right to work, now what is the choice? OK, that’s one level of analysis.

   Now, if you told that same guy, “Here is a Russian, EU or Ukrainian flag, which one will you die under” that’s a totally different, if related question, that might drive towards a different answer. For example, the average Russophone in Estonia knows his quality of life is better than St. Petersburg, and so will chose a passport accordingly, but likely won’t kill or die for that passport, regardless of how awesome EU membership can be economically.

   All to say, we’ve reached one of the questions American diplomats and military people should have been asking 2 years, 10 years, and 30 years ago, namely what does the End of the Wars of Soviet Succession look like, what is the American equities, and how do we draw, or can we really even think we know enough, to draw those borders.

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   • Holmes Oliver says:

     May 5, 2024 at 10:15 am

     Yes, very. You are on to something. Not a small something. Only beef I have with your comment is all that about questions “American diplomats and military people should have been asking 2 years, 10 years, and 30 years ago.” Nah, that buries the lede. Our diplomacy has wanted no part of that kind of question. Our policies in Ukraine were not ‘ours’ anyhow. Those policies did not seriously weigh our national security, but only use the notion in a cynical, marketability sense. Ukraine has been a place to play with, or rather to play in. The ‘with’ has been with other commercial, political and criminal organizations. “Fighting for Ukrainian Sovereignty?” OH, PAHLEESE… Just because some PoliSci sophomore at Oberlin buys it, doesn’t mean we should consider her concerns seriously for even a millisecond. Our Army already invented the correct categorical term for it.

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     • George L. Humphries says:

       May 31, 2024 at 12:57 am

       “Big” poses good questions. What I am responding to is your passing comment, “Our policies in Ukraine were not ‘ours’ anyhow.” My observation is that the owners of US policy are not Americans, but hyphenated Americans, some of the über-rich, and cabals of über-rich that are Europeans. And London; since 2016 I have noted that the shape that the Mother Country has on the American Q-ball is both significant and invisible. And there is also another player in this, unmentionable, but obvious.

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