Jan 25 about the War in Ukraine

So much has happened so fast. Today Pete Hegseth was made SecDef and Radcliff was made CIA Chief. I figured I better get off X and get back here to make a lame prediction before the two of them act so fast I don’t get to. I’ve been listening to Willy OAM because he is a good and sincere person and because he’s been reading from the opinions of what I would call the mainstream establishment. There has evidently been a slew of essays on ‘Russian Economics’ with a lot of propagandists long assuring everyone that the place has been on the brink of ruin. Yikes. Ronald Reagan had better perception regarding the mystery of Soviet economics than did the whole lot of CIA economists who had already been pondering it for decades. My suspicion is that Donald Trump sees that the Russian economy would do better without the war, but that it is strong enough to kill a million more Ukrainians — and that the Russians would do so rather than lose the war. The negotiation is about to begin. It need not and probably will not include voices except from the United States and Russia. Probably won’t take long, either. My guess is under three months. Ukraine will never be in NATO and will get back little or none of the territory the Russians hold now. Hopefully, the Europeans will be tagged for the re-building effort in rump Ukraine. I don’t want to pay for any of it. Maybe some Democrats have some accounts they filled because of the war. Be nice to take that for the rebuild. Anyway, Russia will be responsible for the part it holds.  Some tangential issues to solve having to do with the Black Sea, gas lines, prisoners, Syria and the like. My guess is that an announcement on a tentative course toward peace will be announced within a couple of weeks. Could have some collateral benefits for the US and for US security — fewer US troops on Euro soil; stronger bi-lateral agreements with countries like Poland Hungary and Italy; a better-defended Greenland; a couple of icebreakers; weakening of the WEF; a re-vamping of relations with Turkey, and on.